ARM Holdings to Drop 40 Percent in 2012, Shares Overvalued to Growth Prospects

Tim Plaehn at Seeking Alpha:

When viewing the three-year stock chart of ARM Holdings, the share price looks like the top of a mesa for the last year-and-a-half. The price will fall off the table in 2012, dropping to below $20 for the ADRs [American Depository Receipts]. Based on long-term potential, ARM Holdings would be an attractive buy somewhere below $15. Currently this is a dangerous stock for investors and an attractive opportunity for short sellers.

I don’t buy it. ARM has a huge period of growth ahead of it. ARM-based chips — on which the company collects royalties — power the computing devices of the future, and no other company has the ability to break ARM’s stronghold on the market. This isn’t even a competition. The game is already over.

ARM Holdings to Drop 40 Percent in 2012, Shares Overvalued to Growth Prospects