Blackberry ASP in Q4 2011

On its Q2 2011 earnings call, RIM’s Vice President of Investor Relations said:

We will report ASP for the last time with our Q3 results in December.

Which is RIM’s way of saying:

It’s going to go down in the future so we’re not going to report it.

And it has. From Q1 2010 until Q3 2011, the average selling price of a Blackberry smartphone declined at an average of 1.9% every quarter. In Q3 2011 the ASP of Blackberrys was $315. If you apply the 1.9% decline to the ASP of RIM’s phones in Q3 2011, Q4’s ASP should be $309. 

That’s using history to calculate ASP. Calculating it with RIM’s “percent of revenue” measure is probably more accurate.

In Q4 2011 RIM had $5.56 billion in revenue. RIM says 81% of their revenue came from the 14.9 million Blackberrys they sold. Dividing $4.50 billion in revenue by 14.9 million phones sold gives you an ASP of $302.26.

Using two different methods, you get two different ASP estimates: $309.01 and $302.26. 

But history says (I did the math) that the latter estimation method is more accurate. Therefore, I believe the ASP of a Blackberry in Q4 2011 was $303.50.