Eric Savitz, reporting on Canaccord Genuity analyst T. Michael Walkley’s most recent research note for Forbes:
The analyst raised his calendar 2011 iPhone sales forecast to 77.3 million from 75.5 million.
In 2008, 2009, and 2010, calendar Q1 iPhone sales accounted for, on average, 15.33% of yearly iPhone sales. Though one might assume Apple sells approximately the same amount of iPhones in each quarter, that’s just not the case. For the last 3.5 years now, quarterly iPhone sales have increased (as a percentage of yearly iPhone sales) as the year went by.
Apple sold 18.65 million iPhones in their first calendar quarter of 2011. If Apple sells 77.3 million iPhones in 2011 like T. Michael Walkley thinks they will, then first quarter iPhone sales will account for 24.13% of total 2011 sales. Calendar Q1 sales have never been so high; the most they’ve ever accounted for was 18.42%.
So where did he get 77.3 million?