Forget 2012 — Apple Could Be the World’s Biggest PC Manufacturer This Year

HP was the largest PC manufacturer in the world last year. They sold 62.77 million PCs and grew 6.50% year over year. If that growth rate continues, they’ll sell 66.85 million PCs in 2011. 

Mac sales grew 27.76% year over year in Apple’s first calendar quarter of 2011. If we apply that growth rate to Apple’s calendar Q2, Q3, and Q4 sales of last year, then we get 4.44 million Macs in Q2, 4.97 million Macs in Q3, and 5.28 million in Q4. Those numbers, along with the 3.76 million Macs Apple sold in Q1, add up to 18.45 million Macs in 2011.

In order to be the largest PC maker in 2011, Apple needs to sell 48.4 million iPads. They sold 4.69 million in their first calendar quarter and would have sold more, but they had the “mother of all backlogs” and were unable to meet demand.

In 2010, Apple sold 28.13% more iPads in calendar Q3 than calendar Q2, and 124.16% more in calendar Q4 than calendar Q2. Andy Zaky, one of the most accurate Apple analysts, thinks Apple will sell 10 million iPads in their second calendar quarter, which ended nearly one week ago. If we apply those numbers to Andy Zaky’s estimate, then we get 12.81 million iPads in Q3 and 22.42 million in Q4. Those numbers, along with the 4.69 million iPads Apple sold in their first calendar quarter, add up to 49.92 million iPads in 2011.

If Apple sells 18.45 million Macs and 49.92 million iPads, then they will be 2011’s largest PC manufacturer. But just barely.